Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Polls Suggest Potential Repeat Win for Geert Wilders

Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.