How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."

• Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
• Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.